Kidnapped Australian in the Philippines Warren Rodwell (December 15, 2012)

A new video of Warren Rodwell, the Australian national who was kidnapped in southern Philippines last year, was posted on the video-sharing site YouTube. Rodwell has expressed little hope that he will be released by his abductors who are believed to be members of the notorious Abu Sayyaf bandit group.

In the video, Rodwell said, "I do not expect to be released before the year 2013 at the earliest. I personally hold no hope at all for being released. I do not trust Abu Sayyaf."

Rodwell was shown holding the December 15, 2012 issue of the broadsheet Philippine Daily Inquirer. The video was posted on December 25, 2012.

Rodwell was abducted from his home in Ipil, Zamboanga Sibugay, on December 5, 2011,

"This video clip today is to say that I am alive. I am waiting to be released. I have no idea what's going on outside. I'm just held prisoner in isolation," Rodwell said.

"I understand there are some negotiations. I do not get any information, updated information. The people around me normally don't speak English. I understand something is happening but I don't know when," he added. Rodwell said he does not trust the Abu Sayyaf and the Australian government: "I just don't trust anyone. Personally, I don't care."

The video ended after Rodwell looked at whoever was holding the camera and asked, "Is that it?".

ABDUCTED SWISS AND DUTCH NATIONAL IN TAWI-TAWI LAST 01 FEBRUARY 2012

INCIDENT REPORT: Abducted Swiss and Dutch National in Tawi-Tawi last 01 February 2012.

A Swiss and Dutch National were kidnapped along with their Filipino guide on 01 February 2012 off Barangay (village) Parangan, Panglima Sugala in Tawi-Tawi. The victims were identified as Ewold Horn, Lorenzo Vinciguerra, and Ivan Sarenas. The victims just finished a 14-day bird-watching trip at the time of their abduction. Five armed men intercepted the boat they were riding in on their way back to Bongao. There were three other men travelling with the victims- a policeman, a local town councilor, and the boat skipper- but they were ordered by the kidnappers to jump off the boat. The victims were transferred to another boat which was assumed to be headed towards the direction of Jolo, a known stronghold of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG). The tour guide, Sarenas, managed to escape from their captors by jumping off the boat- he was rescued by some fisherman and brought inland to Languyan town where they reported the kidnapping to the police.

This photo of Ewold Horn, 52, from Holland, was released by the Tawi-Tawi police command.

Tawi-Tawi police photo handout shows Dutch Ewold Horn, 52 (left) and Swiss Lorenzo Vinciguerre, 47 (right) having a conversation at thier billeting place in Bongao town.

THE PERPETRATORS

The five gunmen were reported to be armed with rifles, pistols and a grenade launcher at the time of the abduction. The Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) has not been tagged as the ones behind the kidnapping. The ASG is not widely active in Tawi-Tawi- most of its operations are concentrated in Sulu and Basilan.

The kidnappers have not yet contacted the authorities and have yet to make a ransom demand.

SECURITY RESPONSE

A massive search and rescue operation was mobilized by the military in Tawi-Tawi and the nearby islands. Naval troops and Marines were deployed for the rescue of the hostages. The search and rescue operations are concentrated along the swamp areas, mangroves, and vast seas surrounding Tawi-Tawi which consists of more than 300 small islands that border Malaysia.

Security officials are confident that the kidnappers have not managed to slip past the naval blockade around Tawi-Tawi. Police denied reports that the victims have been brought to Sulu province - a known stronghold of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG). The Provincial Police Director of Tawi-Tawi, Senior Superintendent Rodelio Jocson, was quoted in a news report saying that a local gang is holding Horn and Vinciguerre- “they were abducted by locals and not the Abu Sayyaf.”

ANALYSIS

There is a perception that the kidnapping could have been prevented had the tour guide and the foreign victims coordinated with security officials with regards to their trip. Since last year, the embassies of the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia have issued travel warnings for their citizens not to travel to Sulu, Basilan, Tawi-Tawi and the Zamboanga Peninsula, as there have been incidents of the kidnapping of foreign nationals in these areas.

It was first assumed that the kidnappers were headed towards Jolo but the boat used by the kidnappers was recovered by authorities in the town of Languyan, Tawi-Tawi. It was noted that the boat used by the kidnappers was small and did not have any extra fuel to make the 12 hour trip to Jolo. Police also recovered the boat from which the victims were seized and they recovered Vinciguerra’s bag which had more than USD1,000 worth of foreign currencies and Sarenas’ bag which contained expensive cameras.

Authorities took note of the fact that three other potential hostages- a policeman, a town councilor and the boat skipper, were freed by the kidnappers. They also did not shoot Sarenas when he jumped out of the boat, dived into the water and escaped. If the ASG were the ones involved in the kidnapping, it is uncharacteristic of them to let these things pass as they are notorious for their brutality and heavy-handedness with their victims.

It is understandable that the authorities could not entirely rule out the involvement of the ASG. Kidnapping is a known tactic of the ASG and foreign nationals are often sought out as they command a higher ransom. To date, the ASG has one Malaysian, one Indian, one Japanese national, and an Australian national in their custody.

It must be stressed though that the ASG is not the only armed group in the area. Local organized crime groups/armed groups that operate in the area could be the ones involved in the kidnapping. There is the possibility that the hostages could be “turned over” to the ASG for a fee.

The events related to this kidnapping have yet to fully unfold and the analysis of this incident is a work in progress.

AIR STRIKE OPERATION IN SULU 02 FEBRUARY 2012

INCIDENT REPORT: Philippine Armed Forces Air Strike Operation in Sulu 2 February 2012

Location: Lanao Dakula1, Parang Town, Sulu Island

EVENT SUMMARY:

News reports broke out that three alleged terrorist and rebel leaders belonging to the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and the Jemaah Islamiuah (JI) were killed in a Philippine military operation in Sulu on 02 February 2012. ASG leader Umbra Jumdail (alias Dr.Abu) was killed in the attack. There were initial reports that JI’s Zulkifli bin Hir (alias Marwan), and Abdullah Ali (alias Mauwiyah) were also among those killed but new information disclosed that the two were not in the area at the time of the assault.

PRECURSOR: Intelligence Gathering and Operations Planning

It was confirmed that United States intelligence agencies supplied the information on the three terrorist leaders in the time leading up to the air strike. In December 2011, several JI personalities were monitored to have entered the Philippines. More specifically, the activities of Marwan have been closely monitored since the arrest of another JI operative, Umar Patek, in Abottabad, Pakistan in January 2011. Marwan was supposedly left in-charge of Southern Philippines after Patek’s departure for Pakistan. Days before the air strike, intelligence informants confirmed the presence of the ASG and JI in the area. This was further corroborated by information coming from local villagers who worked with the military to track down the rebels.

OPERATION:

Two OV-10 Counterinsurgency aircraft took off at approximately 0200 from Edwin Andrews Air Base in Zamboanga City. Both aircrafts were carrying a payload of 2x 500 pound bombs. The aircrafts arrived over at the target site at approximately 0230 – 0300 and dropped the bombs at the terrorist encampment in Lanao Dakula. The area was described to be heavily forested. After the air strike, military troops stormed encampment, whereupon field reports of the three leaders’ deaths started to come in. The assault was described as “brief but precise” and “taking only seconds.”


Map of Area of Operations:

Map showing proximity of Edwin Andrews Air Base to Sulu Island (takeoff and target shown by red “X”) Right: Map of Edwin Andrews Air Base

AFTERMATH:

The force of the 500lb bombs are thought to have thoroughly destroyed both the encampment and the bodies, delaying any positive identification of the bodies.

There are new intelligence reports that claimed that only Dr. Abu was killed and that the two JI operatives were not in the area at the time of the raid. As of 10 February 2012, intelligence sources have denied that Zulkifli bin Hir, alias Marwan, and Abdullah Ali, alias Mauwiyah, were among those killed. The verified casualties of the air strike are as follows:

1.    Umbra Jumdail alias Jumdail, Doc Abu, Abu Pula

2.    Iting Jumdail- the son of Doc Abu

3.    Hadji Tateh Hayudini

4.    Naser Lipae

5.    Muin Khalid

6.    Abdullah alias Abdul Aziz

7.    Abu Daud

8.    Muamar

The military’s efforts are now directed towards tracking down the location of the gravesites of those killed in the raid. Muslim religious leaders in the province have refused to cooperate with the military and give information on the location of the graves. The Imams strongly objected to the idea of digging up the cadavers as it goes against their religious beliefs. There is reportedly only one grave which contained five bodies.

BRIEF PROFILE OF ASG LEADER ABU PULA:

Gumbahali Jumdail

Named Doc Abu due to his ability to provide medical aid to injured militants, Jumdail is a Sulu based Abu Sayyaf leader. He is charged with 21 counts of kidnapping and detention of persons against their will. He was notably involved in the Dos Palmas incident, where around 20 people, some of them foreign nationals, were kidnapped by the ASG from a high-end resort in Palawan.

ASSESSMENT:

The death of Dr. Abu is considered as the latest major blow to the ASG and also to the JI as there are reports that Dr. Abu is one of those harboring JI members. Dr. Abu was allegedly in the midst of planning terrorist attacks at the time of his death. The air strikes have raised concerns about possible retaliatory attacks by the rebels and the military is on alert status as a precaution. There are also concerns that the raid has put the lives of foreign nationals held in custody by the ASG at risk.